Abstract
The thickness of the brittle layer in the crust, which is related to the geothermal structure, should determine the maximum fault size or the maximum earthquake magnitude. A relationship between the maximum magnitude and the geothermal gradient is investigated. Using two catalogs of large events ( M ≥6.5) in the Japanese Islands, recent events from 1927 to 2005 and events from 1500 to 1927, we obtain the maximum magnitude M max as a function of the geothermal gradient T g (in degrees per kilometer): M max=-1.67log T g +9.93 and M max=-1.67log T g +10.43 for waiting durations of about 100 and 500 yr, respectively.
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