Estimation of Socio-Economic Potential of the Far Eastern Federal District

Abstract

To implement the strategic plans for national economic growth, it is necessary to develop the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD), which is a link between Russia and the Asia-Pacific Region (APR). The aim of the work is to analyze and evaluate the main macroeconomic trends affecting the socio-economic development of the Far Eastern Federal District. The shift-share method and empirical analysis of the main macroeconomic indicators of the region were used as the main research methodology. Due to the fact that the foundation for the development of the region is formed by the factors of influence that formed before the coronavirus pandemic and the start of a special operation in Ukraine, the analysis of the Far Eastern Federal District was carried out for the period from 2014 to 2019. The study showed that, in general, the Far East showed positive dynamics in the analyzed period, due to the fact that the growth rates of the district's industries exceeded the national ones, which was ensured both by high external demand for their products and by the positive results of the program for the accelerated development of the Far Eastern Federal District, which had a favorable effect in the areas of specialization of the region. However, industries with a high share of value added are in a crisis situation, which may neutralize the positive trends in the development of the region in the near future, and there are still no favorable changes in the social sphere, which is primarily characterized by a continuing decline in the region's population.