Estimation of sequestered carbon in Article-3.4 private planted forests in the first commitment period in Japan

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to predict the likely amounts of carbon sequestration on a national scale for Japan in the Article-3.4 private planted forests of the Kyoto Protocol during the first commitment period. We regarded the planted forests that had undergone silvicultural practices such as weeding, pruning, and thinning since 1990 as Article-3.4 planted forests in accordance with the definition given by the Forestry Agency of Japan. Regression models were developed to predict the forest areas that had undergone silvicultural practices, employing silvicultural subsidies and forest workers' wages as predictor variables. Then the time series changes in the predictor variables were provided by extending their recent trends, with the result being that the forest areas that have undergone silvicultural practices were predicted on the basis of the three scenarios of the variables. Thus, the Article-3.4 forest area was calculated considering overlaps of silvicultural practices over fixed stands, and the area was converted into the amount of carbon sequestration by multiplying it by coefficients such as a volume table, biomass expansion factor, and others. The result implied that Article-3.4 private planted forests were expected to sequester 8.16–8.87 Mt-C year−1 during the first commitment period. These amounts cover 63%–68% of the carbon sequestration goal by land-use change and forestry activities capped under the Marrakesh Accords. To realize this prediction, it is important to provide a sufficient silvicultural subsidy to last until the end of the first commitment period and to implement silvicultural practices on the forest stands that have not undergone such practices since 1990.