Abstract
Objectives: To understand the pattern of child death (death before their fifth birthday), in this study an attempt has been made to develop a probability model. Methods: Mortality especially child death is one of the important and interesting areas for population scientists. In this paper, an attempt has been made a probability model to study the pattern of child deaths and also try to estimate the average number of children ever born. The parameters involved in the model under consideration have been estimated with the method of moments. Findings: Some real data sets from NFHS are used for checking the suitability of the proposed model. The performance of proposed model is outstanding for the considered set of data. The risk of child death in Uttar Pradesh is estimated as 63 per thousand and the estimated number of children ever born is about 7 in the reproductive life of a female. In the urban area, the risk of child death and average children ever born is estimated lower than the estimate of rural area. We observed risk of child death and the average number of children ever born is decreasing over time. Novelty: The proposed model is competent to estimate the risk of child death and the average children ever born to a female through the distribution of number of child death. Keywords: Child Death; Average Children Ever Born; Probability Model; Marginal Probability; Method of Moment
Highlights
Childhood mortality is one of the important indicators of a nation’s general medical and public health conditions, and the country’s level of socio-economic development
The infant mortality rate, probability of dying before one year of age expressed per 1000 live-births and under-five mortality rate, probability of dying between birth and age 5 expressed per 1000 live-births have been considered as measures of children’s well-being for many years
The observed and expected number of frequencies of females according to the number of child death for the different domains of Uttar Pradesh i.e. Uttar Pradesh urban, rural, and as a whole are shown by Tables 1, 2 and 3 considering the data from NFHSIII and II
Summary
Childhood mortality is one of the important indicators of a nation’s general medical and public health conditions, and the country’s level of socio-economic development. Its decline is desirable and indicative of an improvement in general living standards. In India, 2.1 million children die before their fifth birthday (child death). Half of these children die even before they are 28 days old, accounting for one-fourth of global infant deaths. Among the 9.7 million child deaths worldwide annually, one-third occur in India. While around 4 million children die within the first 28 days of life across the world every year, Singh & Dixit / Indian Journal of Science and Technology 2021;14(26):2180–2188
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