Estimation of E-waste at micro level for reverse logistics: A case of Delhi

Abstract

This study presents a method for estimating e-waste at the micro-level (ward-village level) using a real-life case of Delhi, India and an example of mobile phones. The study is motivated by the practical issues faced by the e-waste reverse logistics (RL) network, which requires micro-level estimation for various activities such as facility location, routing of vehicles, resource allocation, and capacity determination. Taking input as population, and product penetration, due to the unavailability of sales data at the micro-level, we propose an e-waste estimation approach based on the sales-stock-lifespan model. Considering product diffusion follows an 'S' shaped curve, the time-series expansion is modelled using the Gompertz curve and percentage change in mobile subscribers. We show that the waste from obsolete mobile phones increased exponentially from 2004 till 2019, i.e., 1147 in 2004–856483 in 2019, and is expected to be stable with less than 1% growth rate till 2030. We also show that Delhi will discard approximately 858611 mobile phones in the year 2020, and the top 5 e-waste generating wards-villages of Delhi will produce 13089, 6502, 5901, 5863, and 5742 obsolete mobile phones in 2020. The results of the study are of use for designing and operating the RL network.