Estimation of atmospheric lead emissions from coal in China: from past to the future under China’s Dual-Carbon policy

Abstract

Lead, known for its widespread application and high toxicity, has long been a focus of research. Since the prohibition of leaded gasoline in 2000, China has witnessed a shift in the primary sources of atmospheric lead emissions towards coal consumption. We conducted a systematic study on the abundance and distribution of lead in Chinese coal and used model analysis to predict atmospheric lead emissions from different sources. Provincially, the lead content in coal exhibited considerable variation, ranging from 5.27 μg/g to 128.94 μg/g. When incorporating coal reserves in distinct regions as weighting factors, the weighted average lead content in Chinese coal was calculated to be 14.03 μg/g, exceeding the global average by over 80%, which has resulted in substantial atmospheric lead emissions through coal combustion in China. Among the sectors utilizing coal, industrial activities emerged as the foremost contributor to atmospheric lead emissions, accounting for over 90% of the overall release. Considering China's Dual-Carbon Policy, it is expected that lead emissions from coal consumption will decrease by 15%-20% from the peak in 2014 to 2030 but will still approach 10,000 tons. Considering various technologies and carbon emission targets based on China's published policies, the most optimistic emission reduction scenario envisions a decline in coal usage to 190 million tons by 2060, resulting in atmospheric lead emissions of a mere 517.01 tons—a noteworthy reduction to one-twentieth of the present level. Therefore, by controlling coal consumption, especially the use of coal in industrial production processes, and implementing pollution control measures, it is possible to effectively reduce atmospheric lead emissions in the near future under China's two-carbon goal.