Estimation for the Capacity Value of PV and Wind Plants Considering Output Correlation

Abstract

There is urgent necessity for estimating the capacity value of renewable energy sources (RES) in the planning of modern power systems to avoid excessive investment at generation side and RES curtailment. Firstly in this paper, the models of conventional units and the load curve are introduced along with the output model of RES, which takes the correlation between PV and wind plants into account using copulas. On the basis of these models, the sequential Monte Carlo sampling (SMCS) method is employed to compute the reliability index of generating system, such as loss of load expectation (LOLE) and expected energy not supplied (EENS). After that, in view of the concept of effective load carrying capacity (ELCC), the capacity value of RES is estimated by adopting secant method to maintain the reliability indices before and after RES integration unchanged. Finally, a study case is designed with the actual data of a certain western province in China to prove the correctness and feasibility of this proposed estimation method.