Estimating the Impacts of Water Depth and New Infrastructures on Transport by Inland Navigation: A Multimodal Approach for the Rhine Corridor

Abstract

This paper focuses on the impacts of water depth on inland navigation transport, focusing specifically on activity along the Rhine corridor. Using the geographic multimodal transport model NODUS The authors analyze the competitive position of this inland navigation transport versus alternative modes, rail and trucking. The NODUS software uses a variety of algorithms to assign transport traffics between modes and means over the multimodal trans-European network of roads, rails and rivers or canals. This paper describes the three modes’ trans-European networks along with transport demands and costs. They also assess discuss the impact of water level variations and consider the implications for different types of vessels. The impact of climate change over time is assessed and potential impacts up to the year 2050 are modeled. Modeling long-term wet and dry scenarios, the authors conclude that possible climate changes from 2005 to 2050 are not likely to be strong enough to induce any significant shift in modal shares. They suggest, however, that a drier scenario would justify maintaining more small vessels in operation despite any planned improvements in waterway infrastructure.