Estimating the Impact of Ecological Migrants on the South-to-North Water Diversion in China.

Mengdi Li,Xiaoyan Liu,Oliva Gabriel Chubwa,Zhifang Shi,Nan Li,Yadi Run,Yaochen Qin,Yaoping Cui

doi:10.3390/ijerph182312295

Abstract

The South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) provides significant benefits in facilitating water security and improving ecology in northern China. However, few studies have estimated the water value of the SNWD and the corresponding subsequent subsidies of the ecological migrants in Xichuan County displaced by the project. Based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE), this study analyzed the water ecosystem changes in Xichuan County in 2000–2020 and valued the water transfer of the SNWD. We calculated the water cost, the water value of the trunk line project, and the four provinces (Hebei, Henan, Beijing, and Tianjin) of CNY 4.04, 39.64, and 120.93 billion, respectively, and the proportion of the three was 1:10:30 during 2014–2020. The water ecosystem area showed a rapid increase when the SNWD became operational since the end of 2014. The subsequent annual subsidy gap of ecological migrants was CNY 0.84 billion, which only accounted for 4.31% of the gross profit of SNWD. Our results imply that relevant water sectors have sufficient profits to support corresponding subsequent subsidies for ecological migrants. Ecological migrants are a major challenge for water transfer projects. Overall, this study fills a gap of interactions between subsequent policies and ecological migrants and provides a typical case for managing the migration problem caused by sustainable water management worldwide.

Highlights

As populations and economies increase rapidly, water resource shortages have become a major global challenge [1,2]
It analyzed the impacts of ecological migrants of South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) by estimating the corresponding subsequent subsidy gap that should be provided to the ecological migrants for the first time
It was reported that the beneficiaries were the organizations or individuals associated with the SNWD

Summary

Introduction

As populations and economies increase rapidly, water resource shortages have become a major global challenge [1,2]. With approximately 20% of the world’s population, and only approximately 5–7% of the global freshwater resources, China depends on groundwater withdrawal [3]. Groundwater offers approximately 60% and 70% of the total water supply in Beijing and Tianjin, respectively [3,4]. The SNWD includes west, middle, and east routes and will be able to transfer 44.8 billion m3 of freshwater each year to northern China if fully implemented by 2050 [11,12]. Previous studies showed that the contribution to groundwater recovery in Beijing by water replacement from SNWD was 40%, and the groundwater withdrawal decreased to 42% after four years from the SNWD became operational [13]. The decline of groundwater withdrawal in Beijing is attributed to the increasing replacement of a portion of groundwater withdrawal

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