Abstract

AbstractWith the increasing pressure from population growth and economic development, northern China (NC) faces a grand challenge of water scarcity, which can be further exacerbated by climatic and societal changes. The South‐to‐North Water Diversion (SNWD) project is designed to mitigate the water scarcity in NC. However, few studies have quantified the impact of the SNWD on water scarcity within the context of climatic and societal changes and its potential effects on economic and agricultural food in the region. We used water supply stress index (WaSSI) to quantify water scarcity within the context of environmental change in NC and developed a method to estimate the economic and agricultural impacts of the SNWD. Focuses were put on alleviating the water supply shortage and economic and agricultural benefits for the water‐receiving NC. We find that societal changes, especially economic growth, are the major contributors to water scarcity in NC during 2009–2099. To completely mitigate the water scarcity of NC, at least an additional water supply of 13 billion m3/year (comparable to the annual diversion water by SNWD Central Route) will be necessary. Although SNWD alone cannot provide the full solution to NC's water shortage in next few decades, it can significantly alleviate the water supply stress in NC (particularly Beijing), considerably increasing the agricultural production (more than 115 Tcal/year) and bringing economic benefits (more than 51 billion RMB/year) through supplying industrial and domestic water use. Additionally, the transfer project could have impacts on the ecological environment in the exporting regions.

Highlights

  • Water scarcity is a worldwide problem that threatens the stability and sustainable development of human society in many regions (Cosgrove & Loucks, 2015; Hoekstra, 2014; Liu et al, 2017)

  • Changes in runoff and groundwater recharge in the HHH Region under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 by the end of the 21st century are shown in Figures 3a and 3b

  • Uncertainty in global climate models (GCMs)‐GGHM simulations, which are used to quantify the effect of climate change on renewable water resources and irrigation water withdrawal (IrrWW), is the main source of uncertainty related to water supply stress prediction

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Summary

Introduction

Water scarcity is a worldwide problem that threatens the stability and sustainable development of human society in many regions (Cosgrove & Loucks, 2015; Hoekstra, 2014; Liu et al, 2017). This problem will be further exacerbated by future climatic and societal changes (Haddeland et al, 2014; Schewe et al, 2014), making the mitigation of water scarcity a critical task in achieving the goal of sustainable development (Gain et al, 2016). It is still unclear whether the SNWD can meet northern China's water needs and how much the SNWD will benefit northern China's economy and agricultural production within the context of rapid climatic and societal changes

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