Estimating the Elasticity of Demand for Some Sources of Animal Protein in Egypt

Abstract

Red meat, white meat, and fish are the most important sources of animal proteins and fats needed for human food, and they are also commodity substitutes for each other. Average daily per capita amount of protein obtained from animal sources reaches 26.2 grams/day during the period (2015-2019), which is lower than the minimum agreed upon by nutrition scientists in the United Nations recommended by the World Health Organization, which is estimated at 29 grams/day of protein. The local production of red meat, white meat, and fish cannot be fulfilling the growing local demand for it, as the food problem in Egypt is the weak ability of local production to meet the population's needs for food commodities In general, Egypt suffers from a food gap in red meat, white meat, and fish, estimated at 662, 76, and 321 thousand ton, respectively, on average during the period (2015-2019).
 The research aims to analyze the current situation of the most important economic indicators related to the local demand for red meat, white meat, and fish, and study the impact of these factors on local demand, price measurement, and spending relationships on animal protein alternatives with changing prices and spending on them. The research also aims to predict the future domestic demand for red meat, white meat, and fish.
 The study relied on the methods of descriptive and inferential statistical analysis in the interpretation and description of the economic variables subject of the study, and the "Almost Ideal Demand System" (AIDS) model was used, which is one of the important models used in the study and analysis of the system of demand for goods in order to estimate the price elasticity, cross elasticity and expenditure elasticity. And using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Box-Jenkins model to predict the local demand for red meat, white meat, and fish.
 The results show that an increase in the population by 1% leads to a statistically significant increase in the total demand for red meat, white meat, and fish by about 1.41%, 2.58%, 2.31%, respectively during the study period as about 74%, 83%, 93% of the total changes in the total quantity required of red meat, white meat and fish respectively are reflected by the increase in the population during the study period. And an increase in real national income by 1% leads to a statistically significant increase in the total demand for red meat, white meat, and fish by about 0.47%, 1.012%, and 0.82% respectively, and this is due to about 58%, 75%, and 84% of the changes in the total quantity required of red meat, white meat, and fish due to the increase in real national income during the study period.
 An increase in the real retail price of red meat, white meat and fish by about 1% leads to a decrease in individual demand for these commodities by about 0.73%, 0.17%, and 0.11%, respectively, and from the price elasticity of demand for the commodities under study, it turns out that they are all commodities with inelastic demand, meaning that the commodities under study are essential commodities. The Cross elasticities indicate the consumer's inability to purchase both red meat and fish sufficiently in case of the current prices, while the consumer can buy the right amount of white meat under current prices.
 Conclusion: Despite the continuous increase in the local production of red meat, white meat and fish, there is an increase in consumption rates that is greater than the annual increase in production, which negatively affects self-sufficiency rates and average annual per capita share, due to the continuous increase in the population, as well as The continuous increase in the demand of red meat, white meat and fish negatively affects the Egyptian trade balance as a result of import and the rise in international food prices.