Estimating the economic loss caused by earthquake in Mainland China

Abstract

In order to estimate the post-earthquake losses in Mainland China, this paper develops a set of economic loss estimation models for Mainland China based on fixed asset data and the damaging information compiled in the Mainland China composite damaging earthquake catalog (MCCDE-CAT). Considering the differences in seismicity and economic development levels across China, these estimation models are developed separately for different sub-regions. Before performing regression analysis, the Human development index (HDI) is used to normalize the economic loss ratio from earthquake occurrence to the present. The robustness and effectiveness of the loss estimation models are verified by separating the loss information in MCCDE-CAT into sample and test data. According to the loss estimation models developed and the normal distribution characteristics of the residuals between modeled and recorded loss data, the probability of different ranges of predicted earthquake economic loss can be determined. Finally, the 2021 Ms 6.4 Yangbi earthquake is taken as an example to demonstrate the application of our developed loss estimation model. The good consistency between the economic loss estimated based on post-earthquake investigations and the predicted economic loss range by our model further indicates the applicability of the model in rapid post-earthquake loss estimation. In the future, the economic loss estimation method will provide scientific guidance in post-earthquake government reconstruction decision-making and international humanitarian assistance. This method is also applicable to disaster loss estimation in any country and region in the world.