A mathematical model for flood loss estimation

Abstract

This paper introduces an integrated model for flood loss estimation in a river basin. The model is the combination of a physically based distributed hydrologic model and a distributed flood loss estimation model. The hydrologic model considers major processes of the water cycle through physically based governing equations, which are solved to simulate the propagation of water in each of these processes. It is designed to consider the man-made flood control structures, such as river embankments, retarding basins, etc. which affect flooding characteristics. The loss estimation model is formulated based on stage-damage relationships between different flood inundation parameters and landuse features. It calculates the economic loss to different landuse features based on the simulated flood parameters obtained from the hydrologic model for any flood event. A case study illustrates the real world application of the integrated model to a medium size river basin in Japan, which is frequently affected by floods. The simulated river discharge and surface inundation by the flood model show good agreement with the observations. Urban flood loss simulated by the loss estimation model with the simulated flood parameters agrees with the estimated damage using post flood surveyed parameters.