Abstract
The goal of this analysis is to estimate the proportion of COVID-19 deaths attributable to President Donald Trump’s early pronouncements about voluntary mask use and his intention not to use masks. Data from available research were used to estimate parameters for the calculation of population attributable risk for COVID-19 deaths reported to date. Assuming Trump’s pronouncement to have caused 25%, 50%, and 75% of the non-use of masks, estimates of Trump-attributable COVID-19 deaths to date would be, respectively, 4,244, 8,356, or 12,202. The effects of presidential pronouncements on health-related matters may have large public health consequences. Pronouncements of national leaders should be based on the best available science.
Highlights
The goal of this analysis is to estimate the proportion of COVID-19 deaths attributable to President Donald Trump’s early pronouncements about voluntary mask use and his intention not to use masks
We consider the question, “What is the responsibility – the causal impact – of President Trump’s pronouncement regarding the use of masks to protect against COVID-19?” If the president says the use of masks is voluntary and that he will not use one, to what extent is he the cause of deaths that result from the non-use of masks? The effect of the president’s pronouncements may work either directly on those who hear them or indirectly through the media or social networks, which affect the actions of their members
We estimate proportion of infections attributable to Trump’s mask pronouncements, using 3 hypothetical proportions of mask non/rare use that might have been caused by the president’s pronouncements – i.e., T 1⁄4 0.25, T 1⁄4 0.50, and T 1⁄4 0.75. We apply these proportions in the calculation of population attributable risk (PAR) 1⁄4 Pe (RR–1)/ ((Pe (RR–1)) þ 1), where Pe is the proportion of mask rare/non-users in the population who are responding to Trump’s pronouncements, i.e., MN Â T, and RR is the relative risk of the outcome, i.e., subsequent infection, associated with mask rare/non-use, RRM, compared with mask use
Summary
The goal of this analysis is to estimate the proportion of COVID-19 deaths attributable to President Donald Trump’s early pronouncements about voluntary mask use and his intention not to use masks. Assuming Trump’s pronouncement to have caused 25%, 50%, and 75% of the non-use of masks, estimates of Trump-attributable COVID-19 deaths to date would be, respectively, 4,244, 8,356, or 12,202. We consider the question, “What is the responsibility – the causal impact – of President Trump’s pronouncement regarding the use of masks to protect against COVID-19?” If the president says the use of masks is voluntary and that he will not use one, to what extent is he the cause of deaths that result from the non-use of masks? A month later, another survey reported similar results: 86% of Republicans were “very” or “somewhat likely” to trust the president to handle the pandemic effectively, along with 10% of Democrats. A month later, another survey reported similar results: 86% of Republicans were “very” or “somewhat likely” to trust the president to handle the pandemic effectively, along with 10% of Democrats. (The Conversation, “Coronavirus: New Survey Shows How Republicans and Democrats Are Responding Differently,” May 12.)
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