Estimating speed-through-water by Dynamic Factor Models fusing metocean and propeller data

Abstract

In vessel performance analysis, reliable information about speed-through-water (STW) is key for realistic modeling of the single ship’s fuel efficiency. It is paramount that STW measurements are reliable such that they can be adopted as input in fuel consumption forecast models. This paper presents a study where three variations of a Dynamic Factor Model are used to estimate the STW. A simulation study is presented to demonstrate the estimation and smoothing techniques for the Dynamic Factor Model. The model variations are then applied to real vessel data, including STW and propeller measurements, in combination with metocean data (sea currents). The present study suggests that the developed model can minimize the systematic STW measurement error even under highly non-stationary conditions.