Estimating Return Values of Wind Speed Wave Height and Storm Surge Height Using Measurement Data in the Inner Bay Areas and Seto Inland Sea of Japan

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Trend analysis and least-squares-based extreme value analyses are made for the data sets of annual maximum (AM) values and peaks-over-threshold (POT) values which are constructed from the long-year measurement data of sea wind speed wave height and storm surge height acquired in inner sea areas from Tokyo Bay to the western Seto Inland Sea. The analysis detects hardly any substantial trend with statistical significance in any of the AM data sets. The POT data analyses indicate the following findings: 50-year return wind speed is around 30 m/s depending on the sea area. 50-year return wave height ranges from 3.2 to 5 m in the inner sea areas and from 5 to 7 m in the areas partly exposed to open sea. 200-year return storm surge height is widely distributed from 76 to 372 cm in the inner sea areas.