Estimating Patronage for a Feasibility Study of High-Speed Rail in Thailand

Abstract

A feasibility study of a system of high-speed rail lines for the kingdom of Thailand is described. Absent comprehensive local data and any intercity forecasting models for the nation, an incremental demand model and an incremental mode-choice model were chosen as the modeling techniques to use for the study. The incremental demand model used variables of population, gross provincial product, and the log sum term of level of service from the mode-choice model. The mode-choice model itself was synthesized using parameter values from similar efforts in other countries, adjusted to local currency values and income per capita. The steps taken to estimate base-year demand and market shares are described, and the application of the models to forecasting demand for four alternative technologies is discussed. Within the context of the input forecasts of population and gross domestic product, the models were found to produce reasonable results, with intuitively appropriate sensitivities. The results were also found to be adequate to guide initial assessments of feasibility.