ESTIMATING MARYLAND CRITICAL AREA ACVS IMPACT ON FUTURE NONPOINT POLLUTION ALONG THE RHODE RWER ESTUARY1

Abstract

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the results of an investigation of the effects of the Maryland Critical Area Act on generation of non‐point source loads of phosphorus, nitrogen, and sediment to the Rhode River estuary. The Simple Method model, the Marcus and Kearney regression model, and the CREAMS model were used to estimate annual loads under: (1) present conditions, (2) maximum land use development allowable under the Act, and (3) two sets of future land use conditions that might occur if the Act were not in place. Results indicate that the Critical Area Act can reduce the present generation of nonpoint nutrient and sediment loadings 20–30 percent from the regulated area. These reductions can occur while preserving agricultural lands and allowing limited residential and urban development. The decrease in nutrient loadings is primarily dependent upon implementation and enforcement of agricultural best management practices (BMPs). The BMPs could reduce present agricultural nutrient loadings by 90 percent to a level comparable to loadings from residential areas. The estimated effectiveness of the Critical Area Act is even greater when compared to potential future nutrient loadings if development in the area remains unregulated. Unrestricted residential and urban development could increase nutrient loadings by 200 percent to 1000 percent as compared to controlled development under Critical Area Act guidelines. The Critical Area Act primarily prevents these future increases by severely limiting woodland cutting, with lesser results obtained by requiring urban BMPs.