Estimating Future Residential Property Risk Associated with Wildfires in Louisiana, U.S.A.

Abstract

Wildfire is an important but understudied natural hazard in some areas. This research examined historical and future wildfire property risk at the census-block level in Louisiana, a U.S.A. state with relatively dense population and substantial vulnerability to loss from wildfire, despite its wet climate. Here wildfire risk is defined as the product of exposure and vulnerability to the hazard, where exposure is a function of the historical and anticipated future wildfire frequency/extent, and vulnerability is a function of population, structure and content property value, damage probability, and percent of properties damaged. The results revealed a historical (1992–2015) average annual statewide property loss due to wildfire of almost USD 5.6 million (in 2010 USD), with the greatest risk in southwestern inland, east-central, extreme northwestern, and coastal southwestern Louisiana. The geographic distribution of wildfire risk by 2050 will remain similar to that today, but the magnitude of losses was projected to increase statewide to over USD 11 million by 2050 (in 2010 USD), an increase of more than 100% over 2010 values. These estimates are conservative, as they did not include crop, forestry, or indirect losses (e.g., cost of evacuation and missed time at work). Overall, results suggested that increased efforts are needed to contain wildfires, to reduce the future risk of this increasing and underestimated hazard.