Estimating CO2 emissions using a fractional grey Bernoulli model with time power term.

Abstract

Global warming caused by CO2 emissions will directly harm the health and quality of life of people. Accurate prediction of CO2 emissions is highly important for policy-makers to formulate scientific and reasonable low-carbon environmental protection policies. To accurately predict the CO2 emissions of the world’s major economies, this paper proposes a new fractional grey Bernoulli model (FGBM(1,1,t^{alpha })). First, this paper introduces the modeling mechanism and characteristics of the FGBM(1,1,t^{alpha }) model. The new model can be transformed into other grey prediction models through parameter adjustment, so the new model exhibits high adaptability. Second, this paper employs four carbon emission datasets to establish a grey prediction model, calculates model parameters with three optimization algorithms, adopts two evaluation criteria to evaluate the accuracy of the model results, and selects the optimization algorithm and model results that yield the highest model accuracy, which verifies that the FGBM(1,1,t^{alpha }) model is more feasible and effective than the other six grey models. Finally, this paper applies the FGBM(1,1,t^{alpha }) model to predict the CO2 emissions of the USA, India, Asia Pacific, and the world over the next 5 years. The forecast results reveal that from 2020 to 2024, the CO2 emissions of India, the Asia Pacific region, and the world will gradually rise, but that in USA will slowly decline over the next 5 years.