Abstract
Sales of deer licenses, one of the most important revenue sources for wildlife management at the Indiana Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), have been declining for a decade. To increase its revenue, the IDNR is considering introducing a new lifetime deer license for sale. This license would allow hunters to harvest deer (and possibly other species) each year for the rest of their lives in exchange for a relatively large up-front fee. The forward-looking nature of the decision to buy a lifetime license means hunters' choice behavior is necessarily dynamic. Prior work estimates preferences for long-lived, durable goods using standard discrete choice experiments underpinned by static models. We derive a dynamic discrete choice model of lifetime license purchases. Our model informs the design of a novel, dynamic discrete choice experiment, generating data that allows us to consistently estimate individuals’ forward-looking preferences for lifetime hunting licenses. We use our model to estimate the price of lifetime licenses that maximizes IDNR revenues.
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