Estimates on the Frequency of Volcanic Eruptions on Venus

Abstract

AbstractVenus hosts many thousands of volcanic landforms, including individual edifices, volcanotectonic structures, and vast expanses of effusively emplaced plains lavas. Numerous lines of circumstantial evidence together suggest that the planet is volcanically active today. Although previous studies have calculated volcanic eruptive fluxes on the basis of the volumes of lava needed to bury craters of various diameters on Venus, no estimates of the frequency of volcanic eruptions on the planet yet exist. In this study, we analyzed records for eruptive events on Earth between 1 January 1980 and 21 January 2021 for which data on duration and eruption intensity were available, and classified those events by tectonic setting. We then extrapolated those results to Venus by a simple scaling factor. We estimate that as many as 120 discrete eruptions, from individual volcanic edifices and of any duration and intensity, may occur on Venus per Earth year. Further, within any given 60‐day window—a nominal timeframe over which an aerial platform capable of detecting volcanic activity might operate in the middle Venus atmosphere—we expect about four new eruptions to begin, with that number rising to almost eight when both new events and those ending within 100 days of the main eruption are included, or to as many as 20 when considering activity that lasts for 1,000 days. Several complementary techniques exist with which to search for volcanic eruptions at Venus, either from orbit, within the atmosphere, or on the surface, that can be used to test the estimates we make here.