Abstract
Malignant mesothelioma is a malignant tumor on the pleura or the peritoneum caused mostly by asbestos. Although asbestos is not currently used in South Korea, the incidence of mesothelioma is increasing due to its long latent period. This study predicted the incidence of malignant mesothelioma in South Korea over the next 20 years using an age-period-cohort (APC) model. Data regarding mesothelioma incidence from 1994–2013 were acquired from the Korea Central Cancer Registry (KCCR). Demographic data, including prospective resident data, were acquired from the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) for 1994–2033. An APC model with Møller’s power-link function was utilized to predict the incidence of mesothelioma. It was predicted that 2,380 and 1,199 new cases of mesothelioma in men and women, respectively, would occur over the next 20 years. For both sexes, the mesothelioma incidence rate was predicted to be greater in 2029–2033 compared to that in 2009–2013 (men, 0.282 vs 0.563; women, 0.155 vs 0.217). For men, the age-standardized incidence rate was predicted to be slightly greater in 2029–2033 relative to the rate in 2009–2013 (0.228 vs 0.235), while the age-standardized incidence rate in women decreased within the same timeframe (0.113 vs 0.109). The changes in mesothelioma incidence were mostly caused by changes in the population structure due to aging and not by changes in the mesothelioma risk ratio. The results of this study project a continuous increase in mesothelioma incidence in South Korea over the next 20 years. Although the projected increase in mesothelioma incidence was not related to an increase in the mesothelioma risk ratio, continuous preventive efforts are necessary to reduce the exposure to asbestos and prevent the trend from worsening.
Highlights
Malignant mesothelioma is a malignant tumor on the pleura or the peritoneum
We aimed to determine the incidence of malignant mesothelioma over the 20 years (2014 to 2033) in South Korea using an age-period-cohort (APC) model based on statistics from the Korean Central Cancer Registry (KCCR)
Over the last 20 years (1994–2013), among an average annual Korean population of 48,460,000, mesothelioma occurred in 946 men and 534 women
Summary
Malignant mesothelioma is a malignant tumor on the pleura or the peritoneum. Asbestos causes the majority of malignant mesothelioma with an attributable risk of 80–90% [1]. The use of asbestos temporarily decreased following independence, economic growth in the 1970s called for the importation of large amounts of asbestos for use in construction materials, machinery parts, and insulators [3]. The use of toxic crocidolite and amosite was banned in 1997 and asbestos imports sharply declined [4]. In 2007, the use of asbestos in construction materials was banned, and the import/use of all types of asbestos was officially banned in 2009. Despite the ban on asbestos use, asbestos-containing construction materials still expose construction workers and civilians to asbestos, especially during demolition or reconstruction processes [5]. Malignant mesothelioma can be caused by exposure to small amounts of asbestos [6] and has a long latent period of 20–40 years [7]. The incidence of mesothelioma is still increasing, despite the ban on asbestos
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