The Epidemic of Malignant Mesothelioma in China: A Prediction of Incidence During 2016-2030

Abstract

Background: Since the increasing use of asbestos occurred in China and the long latency period after asbestos exposure, predicting the incidence of malignant mesothelioma played an important role in attracting the attention of clinicians. The Bayesian age-period-cohort prediction model was fitted to predict the development trend from 2016 to 2030 based on the publicly available data of the national cancer registration network. Methods: Malignant mesothelioma incidence data were retrieved from the national cancer registration annual reports from 2005 to 2015. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (APC) Modeling and Prediction package (Institute of Biomedical Engineering, Imperial College, London, UK) was used to describe the trend of malignant mesothelioma incidence and to predict the incidence rate and number of cases until the year of 2030. Findings: The crude incidence rates of malignant mesothelioma decreased from 0.22 per 100 000 in 2005 to 0.16 per 100000 in 2015. After age standardization, the incidence rates remained stable over the 11-year period. The trends were mainly caused by aging. The Bayesian APC model showed that increased from 0.14 per 100 000 in 2016 to 0.19 per 100000 in 2030 and the estimated number of new incident cases was predicted to increase to 2775 in 2030. The age-standardized incidence rate would remain steady. Interpretation: The incidence of malignant mesothelioma would remain stable in the next ten years, but due to its high degree of malignancy, the cancer still needs to be taken more attention at. Funding: Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China; Beijing Hope Run Special Fund; Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences; Beijing Municipal Health Commission. Conflict of Interest: All authors declare no competing interests.