Abstract
ObjectiveWe aimed to quantify, through simulations using real crash data, the number of potentially avoided crashes following different replacement levels of light vehicles by level-5 automated light vehicles (AVs).MethodsSince level-5 AVs are not on the road yet, or are too rare, we simulated their introduction into traffic using a national database of all fatal crashes and 5% of injury crashes observed in France in 2011. We fictitiously replaced a certain proportion of light vehicles (LVs) involved in crashes by level-5 AVs, and applied crash avoidance probabilities estimated by a number of experts regarding the capabilities of AVs depending on specific configurations. Estimates of the percentage of avoided crashes per user configuration and according to three selected (10%, 50%, 100%) replacement levels were made, as well as estimates taking into account the relative weight of these crash configurations, and considering fatal and injury crashes separately.ResultsOur simulation suggests that a reduction of almost half of fatal crashes (56%) and injury crashes (46%) could be expected by replacing all LVs on the road with level-5 AVs. The introduction of AVs would be the least effective for crashes involving a vulnerable road user, especially motorcyclists.ConclusionThis result represents encouraging prospects for the introduction of automated vehicles into traffic, while making it clear that, even with all light vehicles replaced with level 5-AVs, all issues would not be solved, especially for crashes involving motorcyclists, cyclists and pedestrians.
Highlights
Worldwide, automated vehicles (AVs) bring high expectations in terms of road safety
3.1.1 Crashes involving vulnerable road users For the light vehicles (LVs)/pedestrian configuration, the number of injury crashes decreases by 6.6–6.8% for a 10% AV replacement level and by 66.2–68.5% for a fully-autonomous fleet
For the LV/cyclist configuration, AV replacement reduces the number of injury crashes by 3.2–4.8% and 31.2–47.7% and the number of fatal crashes by 3.4–4.2% and 30.8–39.6% for 10% and 100% replacement levels, respectively
Summary
Worldwide, automated vehicles (AVs) bring high expectations in terms of road safety. The European Commission considered the development of AVs as one of its priorities for road safety in the Malta Declaration (Ministerial Conference on Road Safety in 2017). In France, the New. Industrial plan (NFI plan), which states French industrial priorities, notably concerns AVs, shows growing national interest. Industrial plan (NFI plan), which states French industrial priorities, notably concerns AVs, shows growing national interest This plan foresees the circulation of AVs in the context of regular journeys and automatic valet parking by 2030. After 2030, fully-automated vehicles would be allowed to circulate on public grounds within the framework of European regulations. AVs spark growing interest, the angles of approach, contexts, technologies and methodologies are challenging, and the
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