Estimated and forecasted trends in domain specific time-use and energy expenditure among adults in Russia

Tracy Dearth-Wesley,Shu Wen Ng,Barry M Popkin

doi:10.1186/1479-5868-11-11

Abstract

BackgroundExamination of historical trends and projections in estimated energy expenditure in Russia is important given the country’s economic downturns and growth.MethodsNationally representative data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) from 1995–2011 was used to determine the metabolic equivalents of task (MET)-hours per week from occupational, domestic, travel, and active leisure physical activity (PA) domains, as well as sedentary leisure time (hours per week) among adults 18–60 years. Additionally, we projected what these values would be like in 2020 and 2030 if observed trends continue.ResultsAmong male adults, the largest contributor to total PA was occupational PA followed by travel PA. In contrast, domestic PA followed by occupational PA contributed most to total PA among female adults. Total PA was 282.9 MET-hours per week in 1995 and declined to 231.7 in 2011. Total PA is projected to decrease to 216.5 MET-hours per week in 2020 and to 193.0 MET-hours per week in 2030. The greatest relative declines are occurring in travel PA. Female adults are also exhibiting significant declines in domestic PA. Changes in occupational and active leisure PA are less distinct.ConclusionsPolicies and initiatives are needed to counteract the long-term decline of overall physical activity linked with a modernizing lifestyle and economy among Russian adults.

Highlights

Examination of historical trends and projections in estimated energy expenditure in Russia is important given the country’s economic downturns and growth
Total physical activity (PA) is projected to decrease to 216.5 metabolic equivalents of task (MET)-hours per week in 2020 and to 193 MET-hours per week in 2030
Occupational PA followed by travel PA constituted the greatest components of total PA from 1995 to 2011

Summary

Introduction

Examination of historical trends and projections in estimated energy expenditure in Russia is important given the country’s economic downturns and growth. Extension of this research on historical trends and projections in energy expenditure to include Russia, a country that ranks 9th in the world by population (~143 million people) [13], would strengthen the research base for more thorough international PA comparisons and contribute to more effective domain-specific initiatives [9]. The Russian economy suffered a major depression in the early to mid-1990s, with a brief recovery in 1996–7, only to face a serious financial crisis in 1998 Following this crisis, the economy recovered for the 10 years, posting gross domestic product growth ranging from 4.7 to 10.0% [14,15]. PA projections provide valuable insight into potential PA patterns if no actions are taken and help prioritize the development and implementation of domain-specific PA initiatives

Methods

Results

Conclusion