Estimate the Probability Distribution of Imbalance-Induced Energy Loss With Minimal Data

Abstract

Imbalance-induced energy loss accounts for a significant part of energy loss in low-voltage distribution networks. However, due to the prohibitive cost of full monitoring, high-resolution time-series data of low-voltage feeder currents are usually absent for accurate energy loss computation. This letter presents a novel method to estimate the probability distribution of imbalance-induced energy loss. In the proposed method, only the line resistance and statistical data (mean and covariance) of the phase currents are required to estimate imbalanced networks' energy loss. Furthermore, a Bayesian statistics-based data-driven method is also proposed to get the mean and covariance value of phase current with minimal measurements. Numerical tests on a real three-phase imbalanced circuit show the proposed approach obtains the probability distribution of imbalance-induced energy loss with a low estimating error and low field measurement frequency.