Establishing an onshore pipeline incident database to support operational risk management in Brazil - Part 2: Bowtie proposition and statistics of failure

Abstract

In part 1, which is complementary to this article, an appropriate data collection architecture was proposed in order to support the establishment of an onshore pipeline incident database in Brazil. Reflecting the current context of pipeline industry in this country, this structure was built based on the state of art regarding several international databases followed by an interdisciplinary survey submitted to pipeline experts from different areas of specialization. According to their favorability, a criteria was applied in order to select the collection parameters that, finally, compose the proposed architecture. In this second paper (part 2), a bowtie diagram was elaborated inspired on the results obtained in part 1 in order to support the management of onshore pipelines operational risks. In addition to defining causes and consequences, prevention and mitigation barriers along with respective leading and lagging indicators were elucidated based on the literature allowing pipeline operators to monitor the status of these controls over time and contributing to the improvement of their risk management systems. Additionally, failure statistics similar to those presented by international benchmark reports were developed through historical failure data obtained from a Brazilian pipeline operator. Among other metrics, it is reproduced the behavior of failure rates along the period in analysis (from 1978 to 2008), as well as distributions of incidents by categories of causes and exposure (extension) evolution of the pipeline network considered. In sequence, a comparison between Brazilian and international benchmarks failure frequencies is performed. Finally, illegal tapping statistics from 2016 to 2020 are also addressed, indicating some prevention and mitigation measures that were implemented in this period in order to better manage operational risks associated with pipeline theft.