Abstract
The objective was the application of the WRF meteorological model and verify its rainfall forecast in the Cuba rainy season in 2014, for that two domains were built, one external of 24 x 24 km and one internal of 8 x 8 km resolution. Some of the used parameterization schemes were the ACM2 for boundary layer and the Kain-Fritsch for the convection. Rainfall forecasting was evaluated from 6 to 42 hours. The verification was performed using data from the Meteorological Station Network in Cuba. Two methods were used, one based on the punctual verification for the quantitative forecast, and another known as “partial verification” used for alternative forecast. As results, the WRF model implementation and its verification are achieved, which determined that this model underestimates the rainfall magnitudes, although deviations don’t overcome the 5 mm respect to the real one in the afternoons. From the occurrence viewpoint or not of the “rain” event the model also underestimates, but achieves high detection levels, 81 % for the forecast term 06-12 hours and 73 % for the term 30-36 hours. We conclude that the WRF model slightly underestimates the rainfall magnitude, but achieves high detection levels, which is really useful for making rain forecasts.
Highlights
The objective was the a p p lica tio n o f the WRF m eteo rological m odel and verify its ra infall forecast in the C u ba rainy season in 2 0 1 4, fo r th a t two dom ains were built, one external of 24 x 24 km and one internal of 8 x 8 km resolution
El m od elo m eteo rológico WRF (W eather Research a nd Forecasting) es un m od elo de últim a generación, que se ha convertido en el más utilizado en el m un do durante los últim os años para el pronóstico de cam pos de variables m eteorológicas a escala regional
El m od elo b rin d a la p o sib ilid a d de ser utilizado para las sim ulaciones de variables y fenóm enos m eteorológicos en cualquier región del planeta
Summary
A p lica ción del m o d e lo m ete orológ ico WRF para el pronóstico de precipitaciones en período lluvioso de C uba, 2014. El objetivo ha sido la a p lica ció n del m odelo m eteo rológico WRF y ve rifica r su pronóstico de precipitaciones para C uba en el período lluvioso del año 2 0 1 4 , para lo cual se han construido dos dom inios, uno externo de 24 x 24 km y otro interno de 8 x 8 km de resolución. Desde el punto de vista de ocurrencia o no del evento "llu via " el m od elo tam bién subestim a, aunque lo gra niveles de detección elevados, 8 1 % para el plazo de pronóstico 0 6 -1 2 horas y 73 % para el plazo 3 0 -3 6 horas. Palabras clave: M odelo m eteorológico, aplicación, verificación, período lluvioso
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