Abstract
Objectives: To estimate the risks of water scarcity in Huancayo city (Huancayo, El Tambo and Chilca districts) on 2030, by compilation and data analysis of water supply and demand. Methods: We developed a descriptive research, crosssectional design, we used the analysis method of water scarcity hazard, considering the water supply for the urban supplying, domestic demand and its balance, for the vulnerability was contemplated the use behavior and preparation addressing scarcity based on the application of a survey to householders of 1 172 homes in the urban area of Huancayo, El Tambo and Chilca districts, then we systematized the information generating a database using ArcGis software, this had like spatial analysis unit the urban sectors, then estimating risks expressed in sector and in affected population to a current scenario for the 2030. Results: The population growth trends indicate that Huancayo city have 429 100 population in 2030 and would demand a volume of 25,8 million cubic meters, outstripping the supply in 45%, due to distribution losses, affecting in this way at the 33,7% of the city, belonging to high-risk sectors where there are 42 schools, 7 health centers and 12 commercial centers. Conclusions: In the year 2030 the affected population due to water scarcity will increase to 152 432 people, due to water rationing average of 2 hours less to the current ones.
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