Escaping Paralysis: Strategies for Countering Asymmetric Nuclear Escalation

Abstract

States armed with nuclear weapons are often hesitant to engage in low levels of conflict against rivals armed with nuclear weapons for fear of provoking a nuclear response. I refer to this condition as “substrategic paralysis.” I provide a typology of the options for nuclear weapon states trying to escape this paralysis. A countervalue punishment strategy deters through countervalue nuclear retaliation. A conventional pause strategy deters by shifting the burden of further escalation back onto the adversary with a conventional response. A damage limitation strategy deters through the ability to limit damage in a nuclear war. Finally, a tit-for-tat strategy discourages through a war-winning capability at all conflict levels. To escape substrategic paralysis, the Soviet Union and India initially relied on countervalue punishment before moving toward a conventional pause strategy. India’s failure to escape paralysis triggered a search for a damage limitation strategy. In contrast, the United States pursues a tit-for-tat strategy to neutralize substrategic paralysis.