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Abstract
A key issue regarding the reliability of scientific prediction is uncertainty, which also affects its possibility as scientific knowledge. Thus, uncertainty is directly related to the epistemological limits of prediction in science. Within this context, this paper considers the obstacles to scientific predictions that are related to uncertainty. The analysis is made according to the twofold character of the limits of science, which is characterized in terms of the “barriers” and the “confines.” In addition, the study takes into account the presence of internal and external factors related to the epistemological limits of science. Following these lines of research, the analysis is focused on two steps. First, there is a characterization of the coordinates of Nicholas Rescher’s approach, which is particularly important regarding the epistemological limits to scientific prediction. Second, there is a study of uncertainty as an epistemological obstacle to predictability. Thereafter, the consequences for the future are pointed out.
Highlights
The Twofold Problem of the Limits of ScienceInitially, two different aspects of the problem of the limits of science can be distinguished
There is the issue of scientific “confines” (Grenzen), i.e., the question of the possible ceiling of scientific knowledge that can be reached by scientific activity
Nicholas Rescher has considered the limits of scientific prediction from the two settled viewpoints: “barriers” and “confines”
Summary
Two different aspects of the problem of the limits of science can be distinguished. It clearly has to do with the obstacles that make predictive activity difficult In this regard, Nicholas Rescher has considered the limits of scientific prediction from the two settled viewpoints: “barriers” and “confines”. When the focus of attention moves from the general limits of science to the limits of scientific prediction, we have two main aspects: 1) limits that are related with agents (i.e., the epistemological obstacles); and 2) limits due to the complexity of the real world (i.e., the ontological limits) Both are relevant when we want to predict the possible future. There are epistemological obstacles to scientific prediction They affect prediction “insofar as the future is cognitively inaccessible—either because we cannot secure the needed data, or because it is impossible for us to discover the operative laws, or even possibly because the requisite inferences and/or calculations involve complexities that outrun the reach of our capabilities” It might only be possible to obtain a generic prediction, instead of a specific prediction
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