What is Scientific Prediction?

Abstract

This chapter outlines three distinct types of prediction: the premodern notion of prediction as conjecture, the modern notion of prediction articulated in positivism and logical empiricism, and the late modern notion of prediction anchored in cybernetic sensibility. By proposing these three types of prediction, the chapter is not suggesting that this categorization is either precise or complete but rather that it is useful to indicate the historical and conceptual differences that characterize the concept of scientific prediction. These loose types will also help understand the evolution of the Soviet will to predict scientifically as it embraced all of these forms of scientific prediction. The chapter shows that prediction has a much broader conceptual mandate as a central component within established “scientific knowledge” in the Western tradition, as well as part of sense-making in both Western and non-Western contexts. Contrary to common sense, scientific prediction is not always about guessing the future. Contrary to the histories of the Cold War scientific expertise, scientific prediction is not always about control.