Abstract
Objective of the study was to analyze the incidence of Siberian tick-borne typhus (STBT) in the Russian Federation between 2010 and 2019, Astrakhan spotted fever (ASF) and Mediterranean fever (MF) since official registration, and forecast the development of the epidemic process for endemic rickettsioses for 2020. Materials and methods. The analysis of the incidence of STBT, ASF and MF in the Russian Federation over the period of 2010–2019, 2013–2019 and 2014–2019, respectively, in relation to the results of zoological-entomological monitoring. Results and discussion. The average long-term incidence rate of STBT for 2010–2019 in the Russian Federation on the whole was 1.1 0 /0000 (DI95 1.05÷1.08) without trends towards change. The maximum relative incidence of STBT is typical for the Siberian Federal District (SFD) where the average long-term incidence rate for 2010–2019 amounted to 6.28 per 100 thousand of the population. In the second place is the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD) – 5.17 0 /0000, in third – the Ural Federal District (UFD) – 0.1 0 /0000. When assessing the 10‑year dynamics of the relative incidence of STBT, we have revealed a significant tendency to increase in the FEFD, a tendency to stabilize in the SFD and a significant downward trend – in the UFD. A reliable increasing trend in STBT incidence was detected in the Altai Republic and in the Khabarovsk Territory. Major decline in STBT incidence was observed in the Trans-Baikal territory, Krasnoyarsk territory, Kurgan Region and the Republic of Khakassia. There is a marked tendency to increase in the incidence of MF in the Republic of Crimea. In the Astrakhan Region and the Republic of Kalmykia, there is an expressed tendency towards the reduction in the ASF morbidity rates.
Highlights
Proposal to create subspecies of Rickettsia conorii based on multi-locus sequence typing and an emended description of Rickettsia conorii
A fatal case of tick-borne rickettsiosis caused by mixed Rickettsia sibirica subsp. sibirica and «Candidatus Rickettsia tarasevichiae» infection in Russia
Современное состояние эпизоотологического мониторинга за природными очагами инфекций в Российской Федерации
Summary
Ретроспективный эпидемиологический анализ заболеваемости СКТ, АПЛ и СЛ в России проведен с использованием данных формы No 2 государственной статистической отчетности «Сведения об инфекционных и паразитарных заболеваниях» за периоды 2010–2019, 2013–2019 и 2014–2019 гг. соответственно. Ретроспективный эпидемиологический анализ заболеваемости СКТ, АПЛ и СЛ в России проведен с использованием данных формы No 2 государственной статистической отчетности «Сведения об инфекционных и паразитарных заболеваниях» за периоды 2010–2019, 2013–2019 и 2014–2019 гг. Многолетние тенденции развития эпидемического процесса СКТ определяли прямолинейным выравниванием динамических рядов показателей заболеваемости (простая линейная регрессия: y=ax+b) методом наименьших квадратов. Расчеты и составление диаграмм осуществляли с применением пакета прикладных программ MS Excel 2016 (Microsoft Office Professional Plus 2016). Для составления прогноза заболеваемости населения СКТ, АПЛ и СЛ на 2020 г. Использовали экспоненциальное сглаживание, реализованное в модуле «Лист прогноза» в MS Excel 2016. Анализ прогноза численности мелких млекопитающих (ММ) и иксодовых клещей (ИК), влияющих на формирование проявлений эпидемической ситуации по клещевым риккетсиозам в России в 2020 г., осуществлен на основании данных, предоставленных ФБУЗ «Федеральный центр гигиены и эпидемиологии»
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