Abstract
A wild boar population infected with African Swine Fever (ASF) constitutes a constant threat to commercial pig farms and therefore to the economy of the affected country. Currently, ASF is still spreading in several countries and the implementation of intensive measures such as reducing wild boar population densities seems not to be able to stop the further spread of the disease. In addition, there are still substantial knowledge gaps regarding the epidemiology of the disease. To identify risk factors for a higher probability of a wild boar sample being virological or serological positive, comprehensive statistical analyses were performed based on Latvian surveillance data. Using a multivariable Bayesian regression model, the effects of implemented control measures on the proportion of hunted or found dead wild boar or on the estimated virus prevalence were evaluated. None of the control measures applied in Latvia showed a significant effect on the relevant target figure. Also, the estimated periodic prevalence of wild boar that had tested ASF positive by PCR appeared to remain unaffected over time. Therefore, there is an urgent need to reconsider the implemented control measures. The results of this study and the course of ASF in other affected countries, raise the question, whether an endemic situation of ASF in wild boar is reversible.
Highlights
African Swine Fever (ASF) was introduced into South-Eastern Europe through Georgia
The present study aimed to evaluate the effects of the Latvian control measures on the respective target figures on the basis of available surveillance data, i.e. the effect on the proportion of samples originating from animals hunted or found dead or on the estimated ASFV genome prevalence
The aim of the study was to evaluate the effect of measures that had been applied in Latvia to control ASF in wild boar
Summary
ASF was introduced into South-Eastern Europe through Georgia. Shortly afterwards, the virus was detected in several other countries in the region[4,5,6,7]. In regions where ASF had the chance to spread in the wild boar population, controlling the disease in wild boar, not to mention eradicating it, was largely unsuccessful[4,9,10]. Several strategies have been proposed to control ASF in wild boar population, including the ban of large-scale drive hunts, the implementation of massive targeted hunting and the removal and safe disposal of wild boar carcasses from the environment[12,13]. The effect of these measures is controversially discussed and many are assumed to have a low efficacy, e.g. use or ban of supplementary www.nature.com/scientificreports/. Collection and safe disposal of dead wild boar carcasses (Responsibility of local municipalities mostly done by hunters)
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