Epidemiological and time series analysis on the incidence and death of AIDS and HIV in China

Bin Xu,Mengqiao Wang,Jiayuan Li

doi:10.1186/s12889-020-09977-8

Abstract

BackgroundTo investigate the regional and age-specific distribution of AIDS/HIV in China from 2004 to 2017 and to conduct time series analysis of the epidemiological trends.MethodUsing official surveillance data from publicly accessible database of the national infectious disease reporting system, we described long-term patterns of incidence and death in AIDS/HIV, analyzed age group and regional epidemic characteristics, and established Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis.ResultThe incidence and death of AIDS/HIV have increased rapidly from 2004 to 2017, with significant difference regarding age groups and provincial regions (a few provinces appear as hot spots). With goodness-of-fit criteria and using data from 2004 to 2015, ARIMA (0,1,3) × (2,0,0), ARIMA (3,1,0) × (1,0,1), and ARIMA (0,1,2) × (2,0,0) were chosen as the optimal model for the incidence of AIDS, HIV, and combined; ARIMA (0,1,3) × (1,0,0) was chosen as the optimal model for the death of AIDS, HIV, and combined. ARIMA models robustly predicted the incidence and death of AIDS/HIV in 2016 and 2017.ConclusionA focused intervention strategy targeting specific regions and age groups is essential for the prevention and control of AIDS/HIV. ARIMA models function as data-driven and evidence-based methods to forecast the trends of infectious diseases and formulate public health policies.

Highlights

To investigate the regional and age-specific distribution of Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)/human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in China from 2004 to 2017 and to conduct time series analysis of the epidemiological trends
A focused intervention strategy targeting specific regions and age groups is essential for the prevention and control of AIDS/HIV
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models function as data-driven and evidence-based methods to forecast the trends of infectious diseases and formulate public health policies

Summary

Introduction

To investigate the regional and age-specific distribution of AIDS/HIV in China from 2004 to 2017 and to conduct time series analysis of the epidemiological trends. Xu et al BMC Public Health (2020) 20:1906 million people living with HIV, and 35 million people have already died of AIDS-related diseases [6]. New incidences demonstrate the transmission from high-risk groups to the general population, and an increasing number of HIV carriers begin to develop clinical AIDS [9]. National government implemented the “Four Frees and One Care” policy (free treatment, free voluntary counseling and testing, free prevention of mother-to-child transmission, free schooling for AIDS orphans, and provision of social relief for AIDS/HIV patients) in 2004, and has been continuously tackling this public health challenge. Epidemiology speaks a hard if not impossible reality for most countries worldwide (including China) to achieve such high-bar goals

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