Epidemics and Fertility Change: Responses to Zika and COVID-19 in Singapore

Abstract

Using longitudinal survey data collected from 407 married women at peak childbearing ages, we compared self-reported changes to fertility plans in response to the 2016-2017 Zika and 2020 COVID-19 epidemics in Singapore. The Zika outbreak led to intentions to delay but not reduce childbearing, whereas the COVID-19 pandemic led to both. At the same time, some women reported accelerating and increasing childbearing due to COVID-19, with more intending to bring forward births as the pandemic dragged on. Educational background was more predictive of changes in fertility plans during the pandemic than during the Zika epidemic, and women who had already delayed childbearing due to Zika were more likely to further adjust timing of childbearing due to COVID-19. We considered three possible explanations for changes to fertility plans: fear of infection, change in subjective wellbeing, and income loss, and find stronger effects of perceptions of the virus on downward revisions of fertility plans during the Zika epidemic but a larger role for stress and income loss during the pandemic, reflecting the latter’s wider economic and social impacts.