EPH207 Factors Associated with COVID-19 Infections and Deaths in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries: A Time Series Cross-Section Analysis

Abstract

COVID19 pandemic has caused significant health and economic burden globally. Compared with high-income nations, prevalence of COVID19 infections and mortality has been lower in GCC countries, but it was higher than MENA region average. There is limited evidence in the literature on pattern and factors associated with COVID19 infections and deaths, especially for six GCC countries. The study aims to investigate this trend and associations. We used world-o-meter online global database for COVID19 infections and deaths, and other databases to capture country-level socio-economic, demographic, and interventional factors linked with COVID19. Trends in monthly COVID19 data were reported via graphs and a negative binomial regression was estimated to determine the association between factors and monthly COVID19 infections and deaths per million population during March 2020 to October 2021. An increasing trend observed in monthly COVID19 cases and deaths up to month 8, followed by a drop and then further increasing trend from month 12 to month 18. For COVID19 infections, negative binomial regression estimates incidence rate ratio (IRR) for ‘stringency index’ as 1.04 (p˂0.001), GDP per capita, IRR=0.99 (p˂0.001), CVD death rate, IRR= 0.99 (p<0.001), diabetes prevalence, IRR= 2.26 (p=0.001), hospital beds per 1,000 population, IRR= 0.002 (p=0.010) and containment health index, IRR= 0.88 (p=0.037). These factors also appeared to be statistically significantly associated with monthly COVID19 deaths per million population. The study contributes to current evidence-base on factors which are potentially associated with COVID19 infections and mortality in six GCC nations. Healthcare policy makers in the region can lessen their COVID19 related health burden by taking appropriate preventing and mitigating measures in relation to factors that have significant associations with the infection and severe disease.