Abstract
Engaging people in preparing for inevitable climate change may help them to improve their own safety and contribute to local and national adaptation objectives. However, existing research shows that individual engagement with adaptation is low. One contributing factor to this might be that public discourses on climate change often seems dominated by overly negative and seemingly pre-determined visions of the future. Futures thinking intends to counter this by re-presenting the future as choice contingent and inclusive of other possible and preferable outcomes. Here, we undertook storytelling workshops with participants from the West Yorkshire region of the U.K. They were asked to write fictional adaptation futures stories which: opened by detailing their imagined story world, moved to events that disrupted those worlds, provided a description of who responded and how and closed with outcomes and learnings from the experience. We found that many of the stories envisioned adaptation as a here-and-now phenomenon, and that good adaptation meant identifying and safeguarding things of most value. However, we also found notable differences as to whether the government, local community or rebel groups were imagined as leaders of the responsive actions, and as to whether good adaptation meant maintaining life as it had been before the disruptive events occurred or using the disruptive events as a catalyst for social change. We suggest that the creative futures storytelling method tested here could be gainfully applied to support adaptation planning across local, regional and national scales.
Highlights
Adaptation is a response to climate change impacts that aims to maximise the opportunities while reducing the likelihood and severity of harm caused [2]
In the Introduction, we argued that futures thinking can counter the influence of overly deterministic, often disaster-driven climate change narratives that can be disengaging, as well as remiss of the fundamentally choice-contingent nature of future outcomes
In the set of imaginaries that were produced, adaptation was presented as a here-and- phenomenon, and good adaptation centred on identifying and protecting things of most value
Summary
The U.K., and many other places, are already experiencing the impacts of climate change, which are expected to increase in range and severity over the coming decades [1]. While climate change will bring some opportunities, such as longer growing seasons and milder winters, many of the impacts will be hazardous, such as more frequent flooding and heatwaves. Adaptation is a response to climate change impacts that aims to maximise the opportunities while reducing the likelihood and severity of harm caused [2]. Adaptation requires investment of finite resources of time, effort and money, as well as an acceptance that changes need to be made. Perceptions of the future need to both justify this investment, i.e., through sufficient perception of risk, and provide confidence that taking action is a credible and beneficial response
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