Abstract
Abstract. The year-over-year changes in economic growth across the Caribbean Antilles islands demonstrate sensitivity to climatic conditions. Daily wind and rainfall exceedances from passing storms are negatively related to the gross domestic product (GDP). Field regression of the GDP time series from 1971 to 2022 for Puerto Rico and the neighboring Antilles islands reveals links with eastern Pacific sea temperature. A zonal overturning atmospheric circulation over the equatorial Atlantic emerges in composite analysis. Alternating at an approximate 7-year interval, it modulates weather events and economic prosperity in the Caribbean. A multivariate algorithm is developed to predict changes in the annual GDP growth rate. The most influential predictor is precipitable water in the equatorial Atlantic 1 year earlier. Reduced moisture overlain by westerly winds in a global bottleneck at 5° S–5° N, 20–40° W tends to suppress Caribbean storms, leading to economic prosperity in the following year. Statistical methods and risk-reduction strategies are outlined.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
More From: Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.