ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS

Abstract

Scenarios depicting targets concerning mandatory bio-fuel blending are critical to the strategic planning of food and bio-energy production chains and their design is the purpose of this paper. Each scenario tells a story about how various elements might interact under given conditions. The method herein utilized is primarily based on Schoemaker´s (1995) and Schwartz´s (1991) earlier proposals. A six step framework is followed: i) identify the focal issue; ii) summarize current mandatory blending targets; iii) identify the driving forces as of a macro-environmental analysis; iv) validate driving forces with specialists; v) rank such key forces by importance before uncertainties, building a correlation matrix; vi) design the scenarios. Finally, three alternative scenarios, relative to the adoption on behalf of countries, by the year 2020, of mandatory bio-fuel blending targets, are proposed which might guide these countries’ decision makers when planning production systems.