Environmental performance of electric vehicles on regional effective factors using system dynamics

Abstract

Electric vehicles have come to prominence as a potential solution for climate change by reducing greenhouse gases. Electric vehicles have gained popularity as an ecofriendly mode of transportation that does not emit carbon emissions or other greenhouse gases. This study aims to analyze the impact of subsidy policies on the regional variance and environmental benefits of electric vehicle propagation in Korea considering changes in the national power mix. We use system dynamics modeling to analyze four different scenarios of subsidy policies and conclude that a 35% annual growth of the current subsidy budget can increase the use of electric vehicles by 350%, which is the national electric vehicle propagation goal by 2030. In terms of the environmental implications after disseminating electric vehicles, this study conducted a comparative analysis of internal combustion engine vehicle and electric vehicles under the 8th National Plan and the additional energy transition of coal-fired power generation to renewable energy. The results show that the global warming potential and particulate matter potential of EVs are 81.7 g CO 2 e/VKT with the 8th Plan option and 37.2 g CO 2 e/VKT and 20.7 mg PMe/VKT for the energy transition option to renewable energy. Particulate emissions can be less than those emitted by internal combustion engine vehicle with the energy transition plan option. As more electric vehicles are propagated, and as the country transitions from conventional vehicles to electric vehicles, the least GHG emissions are likely to be emitted in the application of the phase-in 350% scenario. However, given that Korea will suspend EV subsidies as of 2023, it will be challenging to maintain the current budget for 35% subsidies per year for ten years.