Environmental impacts of technology learning curve for cellulosic ethanol in Brazil

Abstract

This study presents a Life Cycle Assessment of second-generation ethanol production in Brazil considering current and future technologies to represent its technology evolution, compared to the first-generation process. With the start of the learning curve of the cellulosic ethanol production, improvements are expected on both biomass industrial conversion and agricultural production phases. Increased sugarcane yields and gradual introduction of more productive varieties, such as energy cane, are expected, affecting both first- and second-generation ethanol production processes. In environmental impact categories very relevant in the biofuel production debate, such as climate change, fossil depletion and agricultural land occupation, scenarios with second-generation process present lower impacts than first-generation process for the same time horizon. There is a trend of reduction of environmental impacts over time, reflecting the environmental advantages due to advances on the learning curve of second-generation ethanol technology and on biomass production system. The contribution of second-generation ethanol production will be extremely relevant to help Brazil to meet its targets in the international environmental agreements.