Environmental flow assessments for transformed estuaries

Abstract

• Environmental flow assessments in estuaries under impacts of human activities. • Mapping of the Habitat Suitability Index based on fuzzy logic inference. • Habitat aggregation index is defined to represent the habitat fragmentation degree. • Environmental flows are influenced by river discharges and land reclamation . Here, we propose an approach to environmental flow assessment that considers spatial pattern variations in potential habitats affected by river discharges and tidal currents in estuaries. The approach comprises four steps: identifying and simulating the distributions of critical environmental factors for habitats of typical species in an estuary; mapping of suitable habitats based on spatial distributions of the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) and adopting the habitat aggregation index to understand fragmentation of potential suitable habitats; defining variations in water requirements for a certain species using trade-off analysis for different protection objectives; and recommending environmental flows in the estuary considering the compatibility and conflict of freshwater requirements for different species. This approach was tested using a case study in the Yellow River Estuary. Recommended environmental flows were determined by incorporating the requirements of four types of species into the assessments. Greater variability in freshwater inflows could be incorporated into the recommended environmental flows considering the adaptation of potential suitable habitats with variations in the flow regime. Environmental flow allocations should be conducted in conjunction with land use conflict management in estuaries. Based on the results presented here, the proposed approach offers flexible assessment of environmental flow for aquatic ecosystems that may be subject to future change.