Environmental determinants of West Nile virus vector abundance at the wildlife-livestock interface.

Abstract

The diversity and abundance of vectors are essential parameters in the transmission dynamics of West Nile virus (WNV) between its avian reservoirs and clinically susceptible mammalian species. Knowing the determinants of vector abundance could be thus useful in preventing West Nile fever (WNF) cases and associated socio-economic impact. We designed a survey at the wildlife-livestock interface to test the hypothesis that variations in environmental favourability between anthropized and wild scenarios modulate WNV vector abundance and transmission risk. In a continental Mediterranean region where WNF has recently emerged, we selected nine sampling sites and allocated three areas to every site with a decreasing gradient of wildlife-livestock interaction: A1-a horse farm where interaction is maximal; A2-a zone of intermediate interaction 500-1000 m from the farm; and A3-an entirely wild zone of low interaction 1-5 km from the farm. At a fortnightly frequency, we estimated mosquito abundance at each of the 27 study sites in May-December 2018 and April-July 2019. We estimated bird and mammal abundance, collected meteorological information and characterised mosquito habitat at the site scale. Thereafter, we studied the determinants of Culex spp., Culex pipiens sensu lato (s.l.) Linnaeus, 1758 (Diptera: Culicidae) and Culex theileri Theobald, 1903 abundance by constructing negative binomial generalised linear mixed models. We identified 20 mosquito species, with a notable predominance of Culex spp. and, particularly, of Cx. pipiens s.l. We found differences in the spatiotemporal distribution of Culex spp. abundance and confirmed our hypothesis by finding important effects of local environmental variations in abundance. The accumulated rainfall in fortnights 4-14 and the mean temperature of the two fortnights before sampling were positively and statistically significantly associated with the abundance of Cx. pipiens s.l. (Z = 13.09, p < 0.001, and Z = 9.91, p < 0. 001, respectively) and Culex spp. (Z = 13.35, p < 0.001, and Z = 6.99, p < 0.001, respectively), while the mean temperature of the two previous fortnights was a positive statistically significant predictor (Z = 14.69, p < 0.001) of the abundance of Cx. theileri. The farm environment was the most conducive predictor to hosting Culex spp. compared with wild settings. Our results indicate that continental Mediterranean environments are favourable for WNV circulation and maintenance, especially the environment of anthropized rural settings such as farms. These results will have an impact on the spatiotemporal risk prediction of WNF emergence in continental Mediterranean environments.