Abstract
In recent years, the volume of studies in the fields of transport and urban planning seeking to identify environmental determinants or correlates of cycling has expanded dramatically. This viewpoint wishes to put forward a provocative argument: namely, that while further research in this area might refine our theoretical understanding of certain issues, it is unlikely to deliver any fundamentally new policy-relevant insights as to what measures need to be taken in order to increase urban cycling rates. At present, the difficulties faced by the vast majority of cities across the world in encouraging cycling are not derived from a lack of theoretical knowledge, but are fundamentally practical and political in nature. From a practical perspective, I argue that we already know enough about what needs to be done in order to encourage cycling in the vast majority of urban contexts. The problem with the seemingly endless proliferation of research on the relationship between cycling and environmental characteristics, I suggest, is that it risks giving the impression that there is some fundamental unresolved uncertainty about what is needed to make a city more cycling-friendly, when this is simply not the case. Instead of focusing on cycling itself, I suggest that exploring the phenomenon of traffic evaporation may be a more fruitful way for researchers to advance the cause of urban cycling.
Highlights
In recent years, the volume of studies in the fields of transport and urban planning seeking to identify environmental determinants or correlates of cycling has expanded dramatically
Despite the value of this research, this viewpoint argues that the exponential increase of publications in this area means that we have currently reached a point of saturation in which, at least as far as policy relevance is concerned, we should question the need for further research on this topic
If we look at the aggregate picture, we find that over the course of the twenty years following the publication of the first crosssectional study establishing a positive correlation between cycling infrastructure and cycling rates (Nelson and Allen, 1997), empirical studies have found time and time again that urban environments with dedicated cycling infrastructure, traffic calming measures and moderate to high urban densities are associated with higher cycling rates (e.g. Cervero et al, 2019; Dill and Carr, 2003; Handy and Xing, 2011; Koohsari et al, 2019; Mertens et al, 2017; Nelson and Allen, 1997; Titze et al, 2008; Zhao, 2013)
Summary
As a result of the growing interest in promoting cycling in cities across the globe, the volume of studies seeking to identify and assess environmental determinants or correlates of cycling has multiplied dramatically over the past twenty years (Fishman, 2016; Muhs and Clifton, 2016; Pucher and Buehler, 2017). Further research on the adverse effects of tobacco might be useful in all sorts of ways, but there is no need for more studies seeking to the prove basic conclusion that smoking is associated with cancer: this finding has already been replicated a critical number of times, and there is little value in doing so again and again. Cervero et al, 2019; Dill and Carr, 2003; Handy and Xing, 2011; Koohsari et al, 2019; Mertens et al, 2017; Nelson and Allen, 1997; Titze et al, 2008; Zhao, 2013) This statement is certainly open to nuances and exceptions, the overall picture which emerges from existing research is a relatively clear one. We have ended up with a glut of similar studies which may be perfectly sound in and of themselves, but which don't really have any new insights to offer to policy-makers and practitioners involved in cycling planning
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