Abstract
The present study developed a novel approach to study the climate change impact on the water resources and generation of hydropower optimally using forecasted stream flows for the Xin’anjiang water shed in China. Future flows were projected using six large-scale Global circulation models (GCMs) with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. A newly developed mathematical modeling using particle swarm optimization was incorporated to work out the projected optimal electricity generation from the Xin’anjiang hydropower station. The results reveal that watershed will be warmer by the end of the 21st century with a maximum increase of up to 4.9 °C for mean maximum, and 4.8 °C for mean minimum temperature. Six GCMs under Representative Concentration pathways (RCPs) showed that future precipitation is complex to predict with certainty and significant differences were observed among the different GCMs. The overall mean monthly and seasonal precipitation increase for most scenarios with the maximum increase during the 2020s and 2080s, whereas 2050s exhibited the lesser increase. Resultantly, there would be an increase in the stream flows during these periods, which was used for electricity production up to 31.41 × 108 kW·h.
Highlights
China is the world’s most populated country and a core emitter of greenhouse gases
The results reveal that minimum increase in The mean monthly maximum (TMax) during the 2020s for RCP4.5 and for MPI-ESM-LR
We examined the future projections of climate change and their possible impacts on water resources in the Xin’anjiang watershed during the 21st century
Summary
The major thrust of their current research is on climate change but comparatively little has been published so far. Global air temperature trends show a rise of 0.85 ◦ C between 1880 and 2012 with a higher contribution during the last 30 years [1]. China is no exception to this phenomenon, and water resources of China are highly sensitive to climate change [2,3,4,5]. Water 2018, 10, 1296 is predicted that the average temperature in China will increase by +3.9 to 5.6 ◦ C by the end of 2100 under B2 and A2 scenarios, respectively [8]. Research studies show that the northern parts of China are becoming warmer more rapidly than the southern parts [6,7], and it
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