Entering the 21st Century

Abstract

WHAT EFFECTS HAVE THE RECENT EVENTS in the Palestine territories and Israel had on the future stability of the Middle East? Despite murmurs of heightened regional antagonism and domestic social mobilization in response to the apparent setback to the peace process, we argue that the Middle East region is now underpinned by new strategic and political realities that will prevent a return to the patterns of conflict in the past. First, Middle East regionalism has been effectively counteracted by the consolidation of American influence in the region, seen most clearly in the dominant role in the Arab-Israeli peace process and the sanctions policy against Iraq. Second, the coherence of regimes in the region, even in sanction-beleaguered Iraq, remains strong or is strengthening, as seems to be the case in Algeria. Successions were smooth in both Jordan and Morocco. There are points of uncertainty, however, that include - in increasing order of concern - Arafat's Palestine, Khatami's Iran, Hussein's Iraq, and Bashar al-Assad's Syria. Third, challenges to regimes from below are less threatening because Islamic 'fundamentalism,' in its more destabilizing and violent form, has subsided and is being replaced by greater social and legal activism - a trend that can be interpreted in very positive ways in both the short and the long term. This is despite the widening socio-economic disparities in the region - particularly acute in the rural areas of the 'Fertile Crescent' region where drought has prevailed. Rising oil prices, however, should help to offset some of the hardships.CONTINUED AMERICAN PREDOMINANCEThe United States has successfully constructed a series of bilateral relationships in the region that continue to overshadow, if not militate against, the emergence of strong regional alliances. Hints of the rise of pan-Arab sentiment should not overshadow the fact that the Arab-Israel conflict has been successfully splintered into an irreversible series of bilateral peace negotiations. This has acted as a moderating influence on Arab regional politics - a moderation that is enforced by Egypt and Jordan, the two front line states that have signed peace accords with Israel. This bilateralism in Middle East diplomacy has also facilitated on-going American military action in Iraq and the maintenance of sanctions whose social effects are from more debilitating than their political effects. Although there have been sporadic Arab attempts to oppose the sanctions regime, most pressure for change has come from either the Europeans, who are beginning to play a more dynamic role in the region, or humanitarian organizations outraged by the devasting socio-economics effects of sanctions. It remains an open question as to whether these diplomatic efforts will result in any fundamental shifts in American policy towards Iraq, especially given the recent American preoccupation with electoral politics.The two countries that have resisted strong bilateral relations with the Americans are Syria and Lebanon. Recent developments, namely, the Israeli withdrawal from their self-declared security zone in southern Lebanon in May 2000, however, open up significant opportunities for the Americans to begin to drive a wedge between the two countries. We expect, for example, that the international community, having hitherto ignored the issue of Syria's 'occupation' of Lebanon, will begin to question Syria's presence, if not to apply pressure for the withdrawal of its 30,000 troops. The timing of such a campaign will depend upon the degree to which the Lebanese themselves begin openly to question Syria's dominant position in the country that also includes countless guest workers. There are signs, particularly on the campuses of Christian universities and in the press, that voices of dissent are beginning to make themselves heard.However, there are two complicating fractors. The first is the question of whether Hizbullah, in the wake of the Israeli withdrawal, has transformed itself from a regional to a Lebanese political actor. …