Ensemble offshore Wind Turbine Power Curve modelling – An integration of Isolation Forest, fast Radial Basis Function Neural Network, and metaheuristic algorithm

Abstract

Offshore wind energy is drawing increased attention for the decarbonization of electricity generation. Due to the unpredictable and complex nature of offshore aero-hydro dynamics, the Wind Turbine Power Curve (WTPC) model is an important tool for power forecasting and, hence, providing a reliable, predictable, and stable power supply. With the development of data-driven approaches, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has become a popular method for estimating WTPCs. This paper integrates the Isolation Forest (iForest), Nonsymmetric Fuzzy Means (NSFM) Radial Basis Neural Network (RBFNN), and metaheuristic algorithm to form a novel WTPC model. iForest performed anomaly detection and removal, NSFM RBFNN approximated the WTPC, and the metaheuristic solved NSFM optimization without training RBFNN. Four real-world datasets were used to assess the performance of NSFM RBFNN. According to multiple evaluation metrics and the Diebold-Mariano test, the accuracy of NSFM RBFNN was significantly better than the other competitive neural network-based methods. Additionally, NSFM RBFNN was shown to be more robust to anomalies than competitors, which is highly beneficial for practical applications.