Enhancing Precipitation Nowcasting Through Dual-Attention RNN: Integrating Satellite Infrared and Radar VIL Data

Abstract

Listen

Translate article

Traditional deep learning-based prediction methods predominantly rely on weather radar data to quantify precipitation, often neglecting the integration of the thermal processes involved in the formation and dissipation of precipitation, which leads to reduced prediction accuracy. To address this limitation, we introduce the Dual-Attention Recurrent Neural Network (DA-RNN), a model that combines satellite infrared (IR) data with radar-derived vertically integrated liquid (VIL) content. This model leverages the fundamental physical relationship between temperature and precipitation in a predictive framework that captures thermal and water vapor dynamics, thereby enhancing prediction accuracy. The results of experimental evaluations on the SEVIR dataset demonstrate that the DA-RNN model surpasses traditional methods on the test set. Notably, the DA-TrajGRU model achieves reductions in mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of 30 (9.3%) and 89 (6.4%), respectively, compared with those of the conventional TrajGRU model. Furthermore, our DA-RNN exhibits robust false alarm rates (FAR) for various thresholds, with only slight decreases in the critical success index (CSI) and Heidke skill score (HSS) when increasing the threshold. Additionally, we present a visualization of precipitation nowcasting, illustrating that the integration of multiple data sources effectively avoids overestimation of VIL values, further increasing the precision of precipitation forecasts.